The Japan Times - Asked to predict the next pope, AI bots hedge bets

The April 21 death of Pope Francis triggered a period of mourning in the Catholic Church, but also kick-started the race for his successor, with everyone from Vatican insiders to bookmakers scrambling to guess who it will be.

AFP asked four AI chatbots -- including OpenAI's ChatGPT and billionaire Elon Musk's Grok -- for insights into the potential frontrunners, with mixed results.

Grok and Google's Gemini said their top contender is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's number two during nearly all of Francis's papacy.

"Based on current analysis and prominent discussions, Cardinal Pietro Parolin emerges as a strong contender," said Gemini.

But it also listed some eight others -- including ChatGPT's leading pick.

"If I had to make a prediction based on current trends, influence, and the direction the Church has taken under Pope Francis, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle stands out as the most likely candidate," Open AI's ChatGPT said.

Tagle is Asia's frontrunner for the papacy and like Francis, seen as a leading advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalised people.

But one similarity in the chatbots' responses stood out.

Each emphasised the near impossibility of forecasting the outcome.

"It's important to understand that while AI can analyze data and identify patterns, predicting the next Pope involves factors that go beyond data analysis," said Gemini.

These include the cardinals' theological stances, age, experience, and the secrecy surrounding the vote.

ChatGPT made it clear that its guess was "not a prediction in the crystal ball sense", but rather "a 'here's what the cardinals might consider' kind of thing".

Meanwhile, French company Mistral AI refused to get dragged into the guessing game at all.

"I don't have the ability to predict or speculate on who the next Pope will be," it said.

Mistral did offer one suggestion: "For the most accurate and up-to-date information, I recommend following reliable news sources."

H.Nakamura--JT