The Japan Times - Climate change boosts risk of extreme wildfires 25%: study

EUR -
AED 3.812297
AFN 76.262311
ALL 99.619034
AMD 411.757488
ANG 1.870521
AOA 949.181231
ARS 1093.542925
AUD 1.660238
AWG 1.868276
AZN 1.766
BAM 1.966383
BBD 2.095519
BDT 126.56361
BGN 1.956802
BHD 0.391283
BIF 3035.948747
BMD 1.037931
BND 1.408119
BOB 7.171806
BRL 5.992004
BSD 1.037806
BTN 90.436347
BWP 14.495434
BYN 3.396445
BYR 20343.451433
BZD 2.084781
CAD 1.488783
CDF 2958.103979
CHF 0.939722
CLF 0.026464
CLP 1015.543055
CNY 7.456912
CNH 7.56231
COP 4317.596567
CRC 525.242059
CUC 1.037931
CUP 27.505177
CVE 110.862737
CZK 25.151125
DJF 184.461268
DKK 7.459627
DOP 64.137042
DZD 140.779767
EGP 52.174627
ERN 15.568968
ETB 132.801281
FJD 2.404939
FKP 0.854827
GBP 0.831612
GEL 2.947737
GGP 0.854827
GHS 15.98248
GIP 0.854827
GMD 75.251416
GNF 8970.27847
GTQ 8.022409
GYD 217.134906
HKD 8.083211
HNL 26.438804
HRK 7.659463
HTG 135.754561
HUF 407.091668
IDR 16935.611938
ILS 3.703314
IMP 0.854827
INR 90.386215
IQD 1359.556494
IRR 43696.90299
ISK 146.80476
JEP 0.854827
JMD 163.469802
JOD 0.736312
JPY 160.127846
KES 134.04869
KGS 90.766933
KHR 4173.583056
KMF 497.01308
KPW 934.138191
KRW 1508.290203
KWD 0.320264
KYD 0.86488
KZT 539.298116
LAK 22576.158503
LBP 92939.792727
LKR 310.889211
LRD 206.537565
LSL 19.478598
LTL 3.064741
LVL 0.627834
LYD 5.117642
MAD 10.459797
MDL 19.496495
MGA 4872.364127
MKD 61.49271
MMK 3371.160036
MNT 3526.890314
MOP 8.324745
MRU 41.430781
MUR 48.782559
MVR 15.983321
MWK 1799.637753
MXN 21.282416
MYR 4.612564
MZN 66.322672
NAD 19.478598
NGN 1548.520354
NIO 38.19631
NOK 11.668972
NPR 144.698654
NZD 1.838399
OMR 0.399567
PAB 1.037816
PEN 3.846174
PGK 4.225825
PHP 60.289792
PKR 289.506416
PLN 4.209567
PYG 8172.140321
QAR 3.783737
RON 4.977708
RSD 117.098316
RUB 104.514145
RWF 1465.932088
SAR 3.893011
SBD 8.796659
SCR 15.437161
SDG 623.797098
SEK 11.390044
SGD 1.403501
SHP 0.854827
SLE 23.767495
SLL 21764.898122
SOS 593.109286
SRD 36.436585
STD 21483.080173
SVC 9.080962
SYP 13495.181389
SZL 19.472364
THB 34.957438
TJS 11.312612
TMT 3.632759
TND 3.331595
TOP 2.430938
TRY 37.292353
TTD 7.039088
TWD 34.133924
TZS 2660.496862
UAH 43.315561
UGX 3819.631039
USD 1.037931
UYU 44.771827
UZS 13476.79243
VES 60.68269
VND 26135.107504
VUV 123.225276
WST 2.907066
XAF 659.525661
XAG 0.03211
XAU 0.000365
XCD 2.805061
XDR 0.795999
XOF 659.516078
XPF 119.331742
YER 258.227029
ZAR 19.385467
ZMK 9342.629047
ZMW 29.189945
ZWL 334.213421
  • SCS

    0.2050

    11.275

    +1.82%

  • NGG

    0.0350

    62.045

    +0.06%

  • RBGPF

    0.2700

    66.27

    +0.41%

  • RIO

    1.4350

    61.285

    +2.34%

  • GSK

    -0.0050

    34.895

    -0.01%

  • CMSC

    -0.0400

    23.31

    -0.17%

  • BTI

    0.4000

    40.14

    +1%

  • RYCEF

    0.1500

    7.5

    +2%

  • VOD

    -0.3150

    8.175

    -3.85%

  • BCC

    0.8300

    125.97

    +0.66%

  • BCE

    0.3750

    24.405

    +1.54%

  • CMSD

    -0.1200

    23.63

    -0.51%

  • RELX

    0.1250

    49.975

    +0.25%

  • AZN

    -0.3750

    69.485

    -0.54%

  • JRI

    0.1150

    12.575

    +0.91%

  • BP

    0.7550

    31.625

    +2.39%

Climate change boosts risk of extreme wildfires 25%: study
Climate change boosts risk of extreme wildfires 25%: study / Photo: Angelos Tzortzinis - AFP

Climate change boosts risk of extreme wildfires 25%: study

Climate change has sharply boosted the risk of fast-spreading wildfires, according to a Californian study published Wednesday that offers lessons for prevention after recent disasters in Canada, Greece and Hawaii.

Text size:

Scientists at the Breakthrough Institute, a non-profit research centre, found that human-caused warming increased the frequency of "extreme daily wildfire" by 25 percent on average compared to the pre-industrial era, in a study in the journal Nature.

Examining a series of blazes from 2003 to 2020, they used machine learning to analyse the link between higher average temperatures, dryer conditions and the fastest-spreading blazes -– ones that burn more than 10,000 acres (4,000 hectares) a day.

The impact of climate change varied from fire to fire.

In certain partly dry conditions, global warming pushed the area beyond key thresholds, making extreme fires much more likely. In very dry conditions, the impact was less.

"This means that we should pay the closest attention to the places and times that historically have experienced conditions just on the moist side of these thresholds, but which are being pushed over these thresholds onto the dry side by background warming," lead author Patrick Brown told AFP.

- Fierce wildfire season -

The researchers calculated that the risk could increase on average by 59 percent by the end of the century under a "low-emissions" scenario where global warming is limited to 1.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and up to 172 percent in an unbridled high-emissions scenario.

Earth's surface has already warmed 1.2C.

Using data from recorded fires, the researchers measured the probability of a given blaze turning into an "extreme" one. Then they used computer models to calculate how far the post-industrial rise in temperatures had increased that risk.

The study controlled for variables such as precipitation, wind and absolute humidity and the researchers warned that changes in these could make the risk from global warming even worse.

California has suffered a string of extreme wildfires in recent years.

In 2020, more than 30 people died and four million acres were devoured by flames in some of the biggest fires in the state's history. The November 2018 "Camp Fire" killed 86 people.

The study's publication followed a summer of wildfires that killed at least 115 people in Hawaii and forced 200,000 from their homes in Canada.

Greece is battling what EU officials called the bloc's biggest wildfire on record along a 10-kilometre (six-mile) front. It has killed 20 people.

A 2022 United Nations Environment Programme report on wildfires said they are becoming more common due to hotter, dryer conditions caused by climate change, including in regions not traditionally prone to them.

- Fire prevention -

Nature study author Brown said the insights into dryness thresholds could aid prevention measures, for example by indicating the best spots for thinning and prescribed burning of vegetation to reduce the dry natural matter that wildfires feed on, known as "hazardous fuel".

"We are finding that under most conditions, the impact of hazardous fuel reductions can completely negate the impact of climate change," he said.

"It is plausible to have a future of much less wildfire danger despite climate change if we conduct these fuel treatments at scale."

He said the findings could also inform precautions regarding power lines and indicate where monitoring and awareness campaigns should be focussed, and firefighting resources deployed.

Other wildfire experts said awareness of fire risks will become increasingly important for authorities and even holidaymakers.

In a separate briefing by wildfire specialists on Wednesday not related to the study, Andrew Sullivan of Australia's national science agency CSIRO said expenditure was typically "skewed" towards responding to wildfires with not enough money allocated for preventing them.

He said there was a "global need to rebalance expenditure to improve risk mitigation" measures such as managing vegetation and fire-danger forecasting.

Y.Kato--JT