The Japan Times - Sudan war at 'turning point' but no end in sight: analysts

In the early days of the fighting, the army-aligned government was forced to flee Khartoum, which army forces are now a breath away from regaining -- the result of a counteroffensive launched late last year after a succession of humiliating defeats.

"This victory is a turning point as it redraws the battle lines, making the territorial divide starker than ever," said Sharath Srinivasan, a professor at Cambridge University who studies Sudan.

But with large areas still controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), "the fight is definitely far from finished," he told AFP.

"Neither side is ready to back down."

Hours after losing the presidential palace, an RSF drone strike on the complex killed three state TV crew members and multiple soldiers.

As army troops moved to clear central Khartoum of RSF fighters, the paramilitaries launched artillery strikes on residential neighbourhoods in the city and claimed territory in remote areas of the country.

According to analysts, the RSF may be seeking to keep the army occupied in Khartoum, allowing the paramilitary force to consolidate its hold on the vast western region of Darfur, where the United States has said it had committed genocide.

- 'Biggest flashpoints' -

Tens of thousands of people have been killed since April 2023 in the war, which according to the UN has uprooted more than 12 million and created the world's largest hunger and displacement crises.

It has also torn Sudan in two, leaving the country divided into competing zones of control.

According to Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair, "the biggest flashpoints right now in this war are Khartoum and El-Fasher," the only state capital in Darfur that the RSF has not conquered despite besieging the city for 10 months.

Last week its fighters took Al-Malha, "a strategic point" in the fight to seize full control of Darfur, according to Khair.

Located about 200 kilometres (125 miles) from El-Fasher, the North Darfur state capital, Al-Malha is one of the northernmost towns in the desert region on Sudan's border with Libya.

Controlling it could help the RSF secure the compromised supply lines that analysts say have hindered its Darfur campaign, and allow the paramilitary force to bring in more fighters, fuel and weapons.

With the RSF emboldened in Darfur, "the territorial division that's occurring could mean a de facto separation," Srinivasan said.

Last month, the RSF and its allies signed a charter to establish their own government in rebel-held territories, a move that the UN Security Council warned would further fragment the country.

Cameron Hudson, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said that a key question is whether the army will "be content" with retaking Khartoum and holding its ground in Sudan's north and east, or whether it will push westward to destroy the RSF.

- Detente? -

Either way, the authorities will face "enormous pressure" as millions of displaced people hope to return to reclaimed territories, Hudson told AFP.

There is also the threat of mass starvation and a heightened risk of atrocities against civilians, which both sides have been accused of.

"There's obviously a fork in the road ahead after the army takes Khartoum," said Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group think tank.

"Either more war, or a pivot to try and end this through peace talks," he told AFP.

Neither side have shown any appetite for a truce, but the latest army gains offer an opportunity for its "main backers to try and wind this war down", said Boswell.

Egypt has consistently backed army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who has also drawn closer to Russia, Iran and Turkey.

Hours after his troops recaptured the presidential palace, and with the government still operating out of Port Sudan on the Red Sea rather than returning to Khartoum, Burhan vowed there would be "no negotiations" without a full RSF retreat.

On Sunday, his deputy Yasser al-Atta vowed to "take revenge" on Chad, South Sudan and the United Arab Emirates for their backing of the paramilitaries.

The UAE has denied widespread accusations of funnelling weapons to the RSF through Sudan's borders but according to Boswell is "the RSF's main patron" and so the "other key player" in the war.

"The clearest path to ending this war is a detente between Abu Dhabi and Port Sudan," he said.

Y.Mori--JT