The Japan Times - Heavyweight seven eye finish line in race to succeed Olympics chief Bach

Any of those three would be an historic winner in the election in Greece on Thursday.

Samaranch would emulate his father of the same name and become the first father and son to be crowned president, Coe would be the first Briton and Zimbabwean Coventry the youngest at 41, and both the first woman and African.

Nevertheless surprises from the electorate of 100-plus IOC members cannot be ruled out in the battle to become the most powerful figure in sport governance.

Ski federation chief and renowned environmentalist Johan Eliasch, Morinari Watanabe, president of the gymnastics federation, cycling head David Lappartient and Prince Feisal al-Hussein make up the heavyweight field.

Whoever wins will take over a financially secure body, but those calm waters are muddied by a febrile geopolitical situation.

Adding to the potent mix, the new IOC chief will have to deal with unpredictable US President Donald Trump as Los Angeles hosts the next Summer Olympics in 2028.

In this "very complex world", as Samaranch termed it, where previously undisputed truths such as "universality, fraternity and unity" are now disputed, it is no time to take a leap in the dark.

The 65-year-old Spaniard, an assured and polished performer with over two decades as an IOC member, argues he provides the steady hand at the tiller that is required.

"It is not about the face or the gender, or the continent," he told AFP in an interview.

"Even in the easiest of times, we should elect the best person for the job.

"This is too important and too relevant for too many people to experiment."

Samaranch would take over an IOC radically different to the one his father did in 1980 and then ran for over two decades, effectively saving it with a radical transformation of its finances.

Samaranch Junior, though, has repeatedly batted away comparisons with his father.

"Nothing of what he and all these extraordinary people did to bring Olympism back to life, nothing of what they encountered are remotely relevant today," he said.

Coe appears to be seen by Bach as the disruptor candidate, which is perhaps surprising given many would view him as an establishment figure.

- 'Feel safe' -

While Samaranch Junior brings a calm urbanity, two-time Olympic 1500 metres champion Coe oozes charisma and a ready wit.

Coe, 68, also boasts an impressive CV. A former lawmaker for the centre-right Conservatives, he led London's successful bid to host the 2012 Games, surprising long-time front-runners Paris.

He then took the plaudits along with his team for the highly-praised hosting of the Games and has been credited with reforming World Athletics since becoming president in 2015.

He has promised IOC members will get a greater voice than it is felt has been the case during Bach's 12-year tenure -- Coe told AFP his approach would be "don't micro-manage".

"If you've got really smart people around you and your ambition as a leader is to have people that are smarter than you around you, then use them," he said.

Both Samaranch Junior and Coe have conducted high-profile media campaigns in contrast to Coventry's low-key strategy.

The seven-time Olympic swimming medallist, two of them gold, is widely seen as being Bach's preferred candidate, something she denies.

She has also been firm about protecting women in sport.

"It is our job as the IOC to ensure we are going to create that environment and not just create a level playing field but an environment that allows for every athlete to feel safe."

There have been question marks over her accepting the post of sports minister in the Zimbabwean government whose election in 2023 was described as neither "free nor fair."

"I have learned so many things from stepping into this ministry role. I have taken it upon myself to change a lot of policies within my country and how things are done," Coventry said.

There have been complaints from some of the candidates, including Coe, over the electoral rules -- mainly that there is not enough engagement permitted with their electorate, the IOC members.

Coe appears to be battling against the odds -- it has been reported Bach has been phoning members advising them to not vote for him.

However, that may not have the impact Bach hopes.

"Never write Coe off," one IOC member told AFP.

"He is a winner."

H.Hayashi--JT